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Current electricity production in Indonesia is around 110 billion kWh and consumption stands at 92.35 billion kWh.

For comparison Thailand with a population of around 25% that of Indonesia produces 119 billion kWh and consumes 106 billion kWh.

With current growth levels around 6% and a positive near future outlook energy demand and especially electricity will increase beyond the current supply means.

Large electricity consuming household items e.g. refrigerators (1,000 kWh/annum) still have a low penetration level (around 30% - 35%) and the market can at least double for this item alone.

The past 2 years the consumer electronics item with the highest %-growth in sales has been the split airconditioner. A split a/c consumes 12x as much electricity as an electric fan : 3,914 kWh/annum.

In the scenario of one fridge and one a/c per household per current penetration levels electricity demand stands at :

No. of households : 55 million
No. of fridges (est.) 18 million => Penetration 33%
No. of households with 1 split a/c (est): 3.0 million => Penetration 5.5%

Item

Total No. mln

Total annual electricity use billion kWh

Growth

Mid term electricity demand billion kWh

Refrigerator

18.0

18

50%

27

split a/c

3.0

12

100%

24

Total

 

36 (=32.7% current production)

 

51 (=46.4% current production)


In northern Europe house heating during winters is the norm. In tropical countries like Indonesia house cooling will become the norm in the mid-/long term future.

Between 1998 and 2004 almost no investment in upgrading powerplants nor in the construction of new ones took place. This year the government has taken large steps forward in trying to clean up the debt situation of PLN (the state energy utility) and enacting new legislation that allows for full (foreign) private ownership of power plants by so-called IPP's (Independent Power Producers).

So far a few foreign investors are investigating opportunities. Since Indonesia's electricity demands will require at least another 24 gigawatt of additional supply within several years extra investment is required.

The main focus re. electricity consumption and possible saving is on Java and Bali. Together these 2 islands consume 80% of all Indonesia's generated electricity.
Also current electricity producing plants need to become more efficient regarding production and distribution (from surplus area's to area's with insufficient supplies). This will improve the situation in the short run.

Like the growing economies of the Philippines, Thailand and India, Indonesia can benefit from the promotion and increased supply of energy efficient domestic items in order to lighten the burden of electricity demand. Even simple items like compact fluorescent lights vs. normal fluorescent lights (used with most households) could mean a significant total electricity saving.

No. households using 1 fluoresc. light

Annual electricity consumption 1 fluoresc. light

Total annual electricity consumption 1 fluoresc. light

Annual electricity consumption 1 compact fluoresc. light

Total annual electricity consumption 1 compact fluoresc. light

40 million

132 kWh

5.3 billion kWh

63 kWh

2.52 billion kWh


In case 40 million households would change only 1 fluorescent light to a compact fluorecent light total annual electricity saving would be 2.8 billion kWh or 3% of the current consumption.

Indonesia ranks at the bottom when it comes to annually produced kWh per capita so it is without any doubt that electricity demand will increase significantly in the very near future.

Produced electricity kWh/capita :

Country

Annually produced electricity kWh/capita

Thailand

1,815,27

Philippines

568,18

India

486,36

Indonesia

454,55


When Indonesia will reach a similar development level as Thailand it will consume 4 times as much electricity as is currently the case. Since current electricity production can just fulfill demand greatly increased investment is required combined with campaigns to educate the general population regarding energy consumption savings.

Source :
Further East Consult
info@furthereastconsult.com